January 7, 2001

Here is the latest E-mail Alert from Treadway & Associates.

On My Way to Cyber City

A few years ago I presented to the Society for Information Management. I followed Bill Gates (who was about equally booed and applauded) and Alan Mullaly, the head of the commercial aircraft division for Boeing. Both speakers were thought provoking, but the presentation that really caught my interest followed mine. It was an official from the ministry of communications in Singapore.

He described the optical wiring of the entire Singapore metropolis, the fact that the city-state sits at the junction of telecommunications for the entire Asian region, and the effect this communications infrastructure coupled with information technology prowess has on the future of Singapore.

As I write this, I’m sitting aboard a United flight on my way to four days in Singapore. It’s my first trip to Asia. I’ll continue to Thailand for more than two weeks exploring another of Asia’s most talked-about destinations.

Asia figures prominently in all our futures. This is the region that will be the third great economic power of the 21st century. Now recovering from an economic crash, Asia still has the advantage of a high-value, low-priced working population. It also has some of the best-trained professionals in the world in India, Japan, and Singapore. On this trip I’ll see two of the region’s contrasts in Singapore and Thailand.

I’ll be watching for the future implications in what I see in consumer behavior, technology uses, tourism, and the penetration of global competition. It should make for a fascinating visit.

Clues to the Future

I believe that you can better forecast your own future by being more observant. Being more successful in your future is a matter of exposing yourself to a wide range of experiences and information and analyzing how that flow of input is forming a picture of the future. I plan to do this along with relaxing and having fun on my own vacation.

I’ve often talked about my analysis of the impact of the Asian market on various fields. I believe this part of the world will play a significant role in North America’s agriculture, technology, entertainment, pharmaceutical, financial, automotive, and manufacturing fields. Whether it’s competition from the region or an emerging market for North American companies, this part of the world is where much of the action will occur.

Being more attuned to the future involves staying observant on a consistent basis. I’ll be looking for clues to what North America, my clients, my audiences, and my own business can learn from a society based on different rules, consistency, and approaches.

First Impressions

Singapore is a fascinating city-state that is equal parts New York, California and Switzerland with a Chinese foundation, British façade, and tropical setting. A high-tech patina covers this polyglot core. It’s unique.

Four and a half million people live in thousands of high-rise buildings on this small island at the tip of the Malaysian Peninsula. Without any natural resources other than its population, this small island has become one of the most powerful economies in the Asian region.

My wife and I were struck by the cleanliness of the city. Every public place is clean and well ordered. The transportation works with Swiss clock-like efficiency. There is a massive retail presence. The financial district is not as large as New York’s but it’s every bit the equal of San Francisco. Changi Airport has to be the best-functioning international airport I’ve ever traveled through. The mass transit is spotless. Of course the fines for littering are extremely high but we saw staff cleaning all of the public areas on an ongoing basis. The subway portion of the mass transit lines was interesting. At all underground stations there are no open platforms. The trains come in behind a series of glass doors. Each train lines itself up with the installed door system and they operate together. It makes for an eerily quiet and efficient system. It’s like something the Swiss would do.

In the U.S., we point to California as a model of ethnic diversity. Singapore has ethnic diversity far beyond our American models. The government is dominated by a large ethnic Chinese majority created by one of the many diasporas from that huge civilization. Waves of immigration and recruitment of labor from Malaysia and other areas of Asia have occurred creating huge sub-groups of residents and foreign workers from other regions. The city is a multi-woven carpet of many Asian and Western cultures. Some of the groups have stayed distinct. Other groups have intermarried and created the model for citizens of the future – people with Eurasian blends of features with multilingual skills and flexible outlooks. In another ten generations there will be very large worldwide populations of persons who cannot be distinguished by today’s ethnic labels.

After a dinner at an Indian restaurant in that quarter of the city Madonna and I emerged into a multiple-block area of Indian men gathered in the street to socialize with other men from their towns and cities of their home country. The crowds choked off any possible auto traffic. What we later learned were money transfer agents circulated through the groups taking cash from individuals that would be hand-delivered to their families within a few hours in a complicated but secure transfer of funds. No Europeans or women were present. At the main street where we worked hard to flag down a cab the crowds spilled over into the traffic, causing congestion. It was both fascinating and disconcerting.

In the Chinese quarter of Singapore we wandered through shops and stands in what seemed like a huge Asian swap meet. All around there were piles of discarded durian fruit husks. The locals were digging into the rare and expensive treat at tables scattered through the neighborhood. Crews of Muslim workers, in a strange juxtaposition, moved heavy equipment down the already-jammed streets stringing decorations for the upcoming Lunar New Year celebration.

Throughout the entire city cell-phones were at everyone’s ear or in their hands transferring text messages. On one rapid transit ride we counted over twenty conversations or message transfers going on in a ten-foot radius of where we were standing. Almost every young person was wearing headsets. Most of the music listening was to tiny MP3-enabled players about half the size of a typical micro-cassette recorder.

Electronics are on sale everywhere and the selection is easily 3 to 4 times broader than what we see in the U.S. All sorts of sizes and varieties of cell phones and communication devices. There is an amazing selection of computers. And every store has all the accessories and selection you might want. We wandered into a large five-story building filled only with electronics and computer stores. They varied in size from tiny shops to 20,000 square foot large showrooms. Bargaining is done everywhere.

Recently I tried to get a part for my Sony VAIO computer that I’d left behind in my office in Las Vegas. I called every computer store in town and couldn’t find any of them that stocked peripherals for my machine. In Singapore I saw dozens of stores that carried the same device in the electronics building. When I flew out of the airport I picked up a nifty little aftermarket device for my Palm V that recharges its internal ni-cad batteries from regular AA batteries and allows you to synch your handheld with laptop at the same time. They’re not available in the States. This is gadget heaven.

No Escaping

There’s no need to be homesick for America when you’re away from it. Go to any city of size in the world and you’ll be greeted by a plethora of American brands.

McDonald’s is everywhere. Burger King, Wendy’s, and here in Thailand we got a jolt from seeing many Dunkin’ Donuts in our face in the most startling places. American convenience store brands are tucked into the most unusual places. There are a number of tiny 7-11’s located on the Chao Phraya River through downtown Bangkok. AM-PM mini-markets stud the countryside in Thailand. American movies are the dominant film medium. American soft drinks are anywhere and their advertising is perhaps even more aggressive than in the States. Windows is on every computer. I haven’t seen a Macintosh yet.

Those are the most glaring examples. But look at the list. Fast food, soft drinks, convenience stores, and movies. With the most dominant economy in the world it’s interesting that the U.S. impact is like a thin overlay of mass-marketed products that have wide penetration but one that lacks depth.

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