February 1, 2003 (6 weeks before the start of war in Iraq)

Here is the latest E-mail Alert from Treadway & Associates.

The Next Six Months

I had planned on discussing a quiet and profoundly important technology convergence in this issue of my alerts but the looming conflict in Iraq compels me as a futurist to write about some of its implications in both the short and long term.

I have not seen as important a predictable event in the past decade. The U.S. economy, national character, political leadership, international alliances, and global role for the future hinge on what is done and how it plays out. The next six months could affect the following five years or more.

Inevitability?

An audience asked me whether a conflict is inevitable last week. I believe it’s come to that point. We could all be surprised by last minute diplomacy or a Saddam Hussein exile but those seem to be low-probability events at this point. When I see accounts of 150,000 reservists called up, the stories of airliners allocated and engaged in flying troops to the Middle East, listen to the negotiations over troop presence in Turkey, and see Colin Powell converted from dove to hawk in the cabinet I see a war within weeks.

For better or worse.

Let me describe the two extremes of what could happen in the next few months.

Best Case Scenario

The war is launched. Iraqi troops surrender in droves. Updated precision-bombing technology is astounding. Multiple military systems mesh flawlessly. Casualties are light. Although the Republican Guard offers stiff resistance it’s no match for the U.S. technology. A street war in Baghdad is avoided. Hussein is removed from power. The military action is over in less than eight weeks. Damage to the oil fields, concentrated in the southern region, is avoided.

The coalition, joined during the conflict by some of the earlier resisting nations, imposes military rule on Iraq and promises democratic elections within a year. The oil fields continue production and a ramp up to increased flow of reserves to pay for the invasion is authorized. The coalition steps up to administer a long-term military government presence in Iraq.

The U.S. stock market rises as soon as the action is started and begins a climb back to a 10,000 point Dow. Oil prices, which had spiked to nearly $50 a barrel, roll back to early 2002 levels.

Among the long term implications: economic rebound, relative Middle East stability, removal of a lingering threat, the United Nations becomes marginalized as an effective body, and a bomb-proof Bush re-election campaign heading into 2004.

Worst Case Scenario

An agonizing debate ensues in the international community. Anti-war activism at home escalates to Vietnam-era levels. Despite it all the orders go forth and the U.S., backed only by the U.K., plunges into Iraq. Despite early, spectacular air successes within days there is a bloody, uncoordinated bog-down of troop movement. Ground troops have difficulty coordinating with air support. Baghdad is a nightmare. The images of “BlackHawk Down” come back to haunt military leaders. The war turns to a series of guerilla actions, many in urban settings.

The invasion triggers terrorist events, militant demonstrations, and a dramatic turndown in Bush’s approval ratings. Former allies turn hostile. Israel receives a missile attach from Iraq and its militant government responds with air attacks. After an initial rise the stock market plunges. The Dow falls to 6000 levels. Consumer confidence falls to the lowest levels in history. The U.S. budget deficit in 2003 balloons to nearly a trillion dollars swelled by 500 billion of expenditures on the war.

Among the long term implications: America’s world reputation is changed forever, economic doldrums, dramatic attention placed on alternatives to oil dependency, a vote of no-confidence for the Blair government in the U.K., and the probability of a U.S. administration change after the 2004 election.

No matter which of the range of scenarios play out, the next six months could be the most crucial for the decade. I’m sure we’ll all be watching carefully and thinking about the implications.

Interesting Pieces from Our Scanning (Click on Titles for Links)

I scan four newspapers daily, a newsmagazine weekly, and over a dozen monthly publications. I also do substantial online reading and see several digests and web-based information services weekly. I look at over 200 items a day. Here are some of the more interesting items from the past month:

Future Office Scenario.
While I don’t agree with all the features included in Dan Farber’s view of a “Day at the Office in 2013” it makes for thought-provoking reading. Notice the reference to RFID technology. This is one of the quietly evolving technologies that I believe could be looked back on as one of the most profound change agents in retailing, manufacturing, and distribution in the next two decades.

Printing Gadgets?
Yes, the natural extension of machines that printed “rapid prototypes” is one that “prints” working devices. Berkeley engineers are including printed circuits in their latest development. When I proposed a similar development a few years ago to an electronics audience there was great skepticism. The sweet spot for this new technology will be inexpensive devices like toys, light bulbs, and transistor radios. Your remote control isn’t working? Stop off at the local Kinko’s and have another printed up while you wait.

The Myth of Man the Hunter Eroded
New analysis of early man hypothesizes that they were not accomplished hunters but instead probably drove away other predators from animal carcasses. A new theory is that women, especially older women, in the family probably bore most of the burden of feeding children through gathering.

Building More Lanes Not the Answer to Traffic Congestion
We moved our offices to the Pacific Northwest recently. Although we live in a very small town surrounded by rural area, our nearest big city is Seattle, with one of the country’s most congested traffic systems. This article discusses “induced travel,” the phenomenon of “if you build it, they will come.” My clients in economic development, transportation, distribution, real estate, and even telecommunications are deeply affected by escalating traffic delays.

The Future of Warfare…. or a Preview of the Iraq Invasion?
Interesting interview with one of the stealthiest experts in Washington – the Pentagon’s resident futurist-in-chief. Chilling.

Could We Live to 900?
Theoretically possible according to this presentation by a nanotechnology research fellow. Robert Freitas makes an interesting argument that the aging population in developed countries could turn research strongly toward repair and reversal of aging. Look past some of the invective and science-fiction-like optimism for nanotech. I’ve been forecasting a scenario for triple digit life expectancy for a large segment of the Baby Boom population. Implications for retirement, pensions, taxation, and government programs, among others.

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