Forecasts: What did we get right?

Predicting the future is a risky business. All futurists realize the unpredictability of the future with absolute certainty. Although the future is better predicted with a range of probability, here are just a few of the predictions we were urged to make and were accurate:
• In August 2001 we forecasted the better than 85% probability of a catastrophic event in a major American city that could affect a clients infrastructure in the telecommunications field. We pointed out the dangers to providing service, databases, insurance liabilities. The client made adjustments to their insurance policies and contingency plans. The fact that a tragic catastrophic event took place a month later was coincidence.

• Oil price per barrel climbing above $50 due to emerging economic demand. 1999. An individual in the audience in Edmonton, Alberta jumped out of his seat and shouted his denial of the probability.

• In 1992 we forecast increasing energy demands and lack of construction of new generating facilities in the face of deregulation. The result: unreliability of the electrical grid in critical areas of the U.S. including New York and Silicon Valley. Outages would first appear in summer months. The effects of deregulation

• The less-than-bump-in-the-road Y2K event. Beginning in 1998 we pointed out the strong probability that the computer clock turnover would be a non-event.

• Bandwidth would become a commodity trading on eletronic-enabled markets. Prices would be set by demand: 1996.

• Emphasis on keeping retiring workers on the job longer through creative programs designed to retain their knowledge and wisdom. We predicted the trend in 1997. In 2000 Congress lifted Social Security restrictions to enable more workers to stay involved longer.

• Strong upward demand for Personal Digital Assistants within four years: 1995

• Small, special interest groups will make more inroads in affecting legislation and regulation in the years ahead: 1995.

• Higher consumer demand for organic foods and a backlash against genetically modified organisms (GMO's): 1994.

• The combined pressures of safety concerns, traffic congestion, school system degradation, and other lifestyle issues along with the enabling communications technologies cause a sharp rise in migration to rural areas of America: 1995.

• Strong broadband demands: 1993.

• Exponential increase in electronic banking: 1992.