What We're Watching

Audience members often ask me after presentations, "What research are you doing to come up with that material?" Here’s how. We track interesting developments on an ongoing basis and then weave them into our presentation and consulting work when appropriate. Here is a sample of developments and topics we'’re watching now that will impact the future:

Global Effects

From agriculture to manufacturing to energy client after client of ours is being forced to widen their vision of the future to include the effects outside of the borders of the United States and North America. We've been tracking globalization, foreign markets, pressures on labor costs, and unforecasted competition from outside borders for well over a decade. Now that knowledge is central to helping clients see ahead and take successful action.

Innovation<p> We believe that one of the strongest business trends for the next two decades will be the achievement of breakthrough innovation. Innovation will enable organizations to create lasting edges in competitive industries. Innovation is the source for intellectual property with long term value. Encouraging a culture of innovation is a robust and successful long term strategy.

We use examples, processes, and instruction in presentations. There is much that is innovative and even more to be learned from the processes and measures in this field. That's why we use illustrations from the discipline known as TRIZ the "theory of solving problems inventively" which originated in the former Soviet Union among others. We include dramatic examples from our large client base of financial services, manufacturing, high technology, and consumer products. Emphasis on innovation will be with us for at least the next two decades.

Disease

We're finally seeing a tendency toward reality on the part of government officials in developed nations regarding disease. The federal government in the U.S. has basically told the states that they're on their own if the avian flu makes the jump to human-to-human varieties.

Energy Developments

The major focus these days is on the extraordinary climb in the price of a barrel of oil. We've been warning about it for years. But the more interesting trends to watch in this area are the economic effects and the long term shifts in consumer behavior and energy alternatives.

I'll never forget the fellow who jumped to his feet and started shouting at me when I spoke to a group of businesspeople in Edmonton back in 1999. He berated me for even broaching the thought of climbing prices shouting, "OIL WILL NEVER GO OVER $40 A BARREL AGAIN!!!" Then he stormed out of the room.

I wonder if he meant Canadian or U.S. dollars?

Demographics

We're watching the behavior and movement of demographic groups in North America, Europe, and Asia for a number of clients impacted by global markets or looking for opportunities to create advantages. For example, the behavior of the Baby Boom generation in the United States and Canada is a key element in planning for companies in financial services, healthcare, and most consumer products. The emerging behavior of this group related to retirement has an impact on a range of fields and functions from real estate to management succession planning. New research indicates that this generation will stay in the workplace longer than any other before it. The prime drivers: longevity, good health in later life, and a failure to put aside enough money to maintain a desirable lifestyle to cover as much as 20 or 30 years in retirement.

Tipping Points

What set of conditions need to be present in order to change a situation, industry, practice, or marketplace forever?

In executive planning sessions we want leaders to see not only the single trends that area affecting their organizations, but the cross-effects of many converging forces. These initiate tipping points.

For example, when working with a regional economic development group we need to consider a spectrum of forces including domestic migration, the region's talent pool and abilities, community magnetism, competition, globalization, clusters of existing successful business, infrastructure pressures, and the degree of cooperation between the major players. By mapping these in an illustration or on a matrix we begin to see different scenarios for the future and can identify the best actions to take.

What's Most Interesting?

The supposed Chinese proverb, "May you live in interesting times," is not Chinese. It's probably of American origin. It might have been coined by one of Robert Kennedy's speechwriters.

The future is interesting. In my line of work I watch for interesting, surprising, and unusual clues to what's ahead. You can read more here.

What Won't Change

The list grows.

A decade ago I developed a presentation that I'd never heard in futurist circles before. The theme was what we could count on being essentially the same in another decade or even two decades. I used seven principles of business that I believe will still be with us in that time frame.

Today I use that same theme not only for business principles but I've expanded it to look at job categories, industries, companies, human behaviors, products, services, and even desirable places to live.

The Illusive Issue of "Knowledge Management"

Lots of lip service. Some organizations are beginning to catch on to the fact that a priceless asset is walking out the door every time they lose a valuable employee. What walks? The knowledge. How do you preserve it? Knowledge management.

Knowledge management is the identification, collection, storage, retrieval, and sharing of the know-how of an organization.

Let's make a distinction. Knowledge management doesn't mean storage of data. Data is only facts and figures. It isn't the management of information. Information is merely knowing what the data means. Knowledge is the ability to take information and make a difference with it. How to improve processes, the keys to quicker turnaround of inventory, ways to get new workers effective on the job faster are all examples of knowledge.

Opportunity: individuals who have big-picture perspective, a blend of experience in IT, MIS, HR, and Marketing makes a potential expert in this niche.