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Consumer behavior
The Consumer Christmas 2010
Don’t get me wrong. The store was busy but large areas were deserted. A store that stays open 24 hours a day is a phenomenon in itself but those wandering the aisles were being attracted to sale racks and less-spendy areas of the store.
It was interesting that many of the fur-bedecked matriarchs leading families very slowly and deliberately through the store’s luxury departments were speaking other languages. A lot of Russian and many Asian languages filled the air as we steered around them.
It’s not surprising. Almost all surveys of consumer behavior in the U.S. show a concentration on reducing debt that is unprecedented. Spenders are coming to grips with the fact that jobs are not multiplying, they’ve got to make do with what they have, and the smartest thing they can do is get out from under credit card and other debt as quickly as possible.
Where was shopping intense in Manhattan? Jack’s Dollar Store located just a few blocks from our hotel. Wall to wall shoppers all the way up to the closing hour.
The most likely scenario for the economy, in my opinion, is a long slow recovery. What I observed falls in line with that. I think a GDP growth near 3% in 2011 will enable the unemployment rate to drop below 9%. Spending will return cautiously. It won’t be for big-ticket items but will begin to bolster support for more indulgent food, some travel, culture, entertainment, and family involvement.
We attended sold-out Broadway shows but there were half-priced tickets available up to curtain time at almost all shows. Movies that you would have to buy tickets for days in advance at prime viewing times were walk-up purchases. Top-rated restaurants were busy but not overwhelmed. On the eve of the Christmas rush I’ve been getting discount and free-shipping (even of the rapid variety) offers on a regular basis.
We’ve moved into an era of moderation and introspection. May we emerge more sober and wiser.
The E-Reader Killer
Those of you who know me or follow this site know I’m a Mac convert. I switched from what the Apple cognoscenti refer to as the “dark side” seven years ago. It’s been a very good experience. Frankly, the Windows world has improved much since I left. But there’s a bigger issue here.
I believe I held the device that will kill the e-readers. Convergence is coming.
When I sit next to a Kindle or Sony user on airplanes I hear rave reviews. Convenience, long charge life, portability are the things they mention. But they also acknowledge it’s another gadget in the bag along with the laptop, smartphone, and various accoutrements of the business traveler today.
With the iPad – and what will be a shrinking horde of imitators over the next few years – you get much more than the reader. It’s really a true lap companion that does much more than just show you a replicated black and white page. It’s a full color, multi-tasking, e-mail and word processing handler – at the minimum. Some power users make them much more.
And the price is just a little more than double the e-reader. Why not spend the little more and get something that does way more than twice the lower priced gadget?
Key indicator – the dropping cost of e-readers. http://nyti.ms/afXw0u A price war has already begun. Developers see an adoption disruption early. Amazon bumps up its advertising.