Blog
Volcano
The Wild Card Weeks
A volcano erupts and ash plus extreme caution by air travel regulators paralyzes a system we take for granted. Millions are stranded. Millions, by any currency measure, are lost. Alternative transportation comes into short-term vogue and overloads. Normalcy returns and we forget. But that volcano is still smoking and just because it’s not page 1 news we relax.
An oil platform explodes and lives are lost. Initial concerns about leaks are downplayed by company executives. Days pass and a slick surfaces. There’s action but no results. Now we’re staring into one of the great environmental disasters of our generation.
Initial reports of an over-reliance on a “blowout preventer” will be examined in hearings and investigations for the next 3-4 years. Recriminations from environmentalists take on stronger weight. A decision to open more offshore drilling could not have been worse timed. We realize that we’re totally unprepared for the scale of the problem, contingencies for stopping the gusher of oil on the bottom, and we’re unenlightened or purposefully ignorant about the risks of the technology.
A car bomb fails to detonate in New York’s Times Square. If it had a fireball would have killed dozens, perhaps more. Vehicles nearby would have burned and exploded. The ensuing panic would have injured hundreds. Midtown Manhattan would have emptied as reports of the notifying phone call leaked out. The caller said it was only a diversion for a larger device. Transportation would have slammed to a standstill. Offices remained empty for Monday morning. Absenteeism spiked. Broadway theaters cancelled performances. And the world’s biggest financial center would have stopped for days. The economic after-effect would have climbed into the hundreds of millions for a devices that cost only a few hundred dollars.
When the alleged bomber is arrested within 53 hours we relax. Investigations of the origin, connection to terrorist groups, evaluation of police response will come. There will be criticism of no-fly lists, airport security, even Craigslist. But when the crisis is over our thinking returns to the mundane.
Therein lies the problem. Extraordinary events like these should prompt contingency thinking and action. They should trigger better preparation, encouragement of public involvement, and planning for the next inevitable event. Too often we don’t look at the next event, only the last event.
I’m hoping the wild-cards of the past few weeks result in serious contemplation and preparation for:
- Disruptions of air travel for substantial periods of time on the part of industry and government.
- Development of even better alternatives to face-to-face communication to back up or reduce long distance travel.
- Better technology and layered backup systems for the next generation of deepwater drilling like that necessary for tapping the even deeper oilfields off the coast of Brazil.
- An acceleration of alternative energy sources and, most importantly, conservation.
- A renewed recognition that many man-made systems have Faustian consequences that should be contemplated before adoption, not after.
- Higher levels of vigilance among all peoples in all places for those that would indiscriminately destroy life.
- Smooth transitions to pre-thought Plans B, C, D, and Z when the worst happens.
Eyjafjöll
This is a classic situation of ripple effects that I discuss in presentations and help clients prepare for in consulting engagements and strategy sessions. Let’s take a look at just a few of the potential consequences:
- No air travel in and out of one of the world’s most crucial centers of commerce. Potentially for not just days but possibly weeks or months.
- Right now the volcano is erupting through hundreds of feet of glacier ice. As that ice melts the eruption might be less explosive but it could also launch finer ash even higher into the stratosphere. The effects of the ash on air travel might extend worldwide.
- The effects on air travel are in the UK, Scandinavia, and major airports in Central Europe. There are closures and delays in Rome, Moscow, and Eastern Europe. The airports affected handle hundreds of millions of passengers and millions of tons of cargo yearly.
- If the delays continue for weeks it will take weeks to clear the backlogs and return to any normal operation. Some of the slack will come from positioning larger aircraft to the routes but this will affect other air travel.
- Some passengers will crowd onto rail and ferry transportation to get to Spain, Turkey, perhaps even Moscow to get to airports still open and operating.
- Many passengers are stranded on other continents, notably the US, and face tough choices for getting back to their homes. Ocean crossings by boat may come back into favor if this continues for weeks.
- Airlines, especially those in the EU market, have been financially stressed by the economy and fuel costs. Expect this event to take down up to a dozen carriers. Even the low cost carriers in the EU will see significant effects. Losses per airline run between 3 and 20 million dollars per day.
- There will be pressure to fly through the ash. Some governments and airlines will begin to weigh the risks and consequences.
- The behavior of the volcano is unpredictable. New fissures might open. It may subside unexpectedly.
- We’ll see another spike in usage of telecommunication alternatives to travel. Probably with long term future effect. Telepresence will get specific attention and fiber optic advantages will come even more to the fore.
- Disruptions to supply chains, lowering of petroleum demands, economic effects, scarcity of air-freighted luxury products, changes in air travel routes, long term climate changes, and many other after-effects will arise.